Cautious recovery for Antwerp’s diamond trade amid structural challenges

The diamond sector in Antwerp is showing the first signs of recovery after several difficult years. Following a period in which the value of diamonds traded in the city was cut in half over three years, both imports and exports have now increased for three consecutive months. The improvement is cautious, and the industry remains far from fully out of danger.

Global trade in natural diamonds has fallen sharply in recent years due to intense competition from much cheaper laboratory-grown diamonds. Antwerp, long one of the world’s main trading hubs, has been heavily affected. In February 2025, for example, the value of diamonds traded in Antwerp was roughly half that of February 2023.

Recent figures nevertheless suggest a modest turnaround. Diamond trading volumes in December, January and February were all higher than during the same months a year earlier. The pace of growth is also increasing. Trade in Antwerp rose by 3.7% in December 2025 compared with December 2024, while the increase in January and February exceeded 7%.

Strong US demand driving a tentative rebound

According to the Antwerp diamond sector, the improvement reflects a cautious revival in global demand. Market data indicates that the bottom of the market may have been reached in 2025, with the sector now gradually climbing out of the downturn.

A key factor is the strong performance of the American consumer market, which remains the most important destination for diamond jewellery traded through Antwerp. The surge in mass-produced synthetic diamonds has pushed their prices so low that some consumers are again recognising the value of natural diamonds.

Another factor behind the tentative recovery is Antwerp’s continuing attractiveness as a trading hub for rough diamonds. In February, for instance, rough diamonds from the Democratic Republic of Congo sold at a trade event in Antwerp for about 40% more than during a previous sale of the same goods in Dubai.

The higher prices were attributed to the large number of international buyers physically present in Antwerp, which increases competition and pushes up bids. As a result, some diamond producers are deliberately choosing to market their stones in the city.

Analysis: strategic choices will determine survival

In an analysis published in Gazet van Antwerpen, columnist Sacha Van Wiele argues that the Antwerp diamond industry can survive only by making clear strategic choices.

He notes that Antwerp has long promoted its diamond heritage and that the city has been a major global trading centre for diamonds since the late 15th century. However, he warns that nostalgia alone cannot sustain the sector. Although trading figures have improved month after month since December, the overall value of Antwerp’s diamond trade remains roughly half of what it was in 2023.

Van Wiele points to the rapid rise of laboratory-grown diamonds as a major structural challenge. Technological developments have made it possible to mass-produce diamonds that look identical to natural stones but are sold at much lower prices. Such synthetic stones have even appeared in discount retail chains.

According to Van Wiele, the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC) has deliberately chosen not to embrace synthetic diamonds and continues to focus exclusively on natural stones. In other countries, he notes, the industry is less strict about this distinction.

He also highlights broader shifts in the global diamond trade. Antwerp faces increasing competition from trading centres such as India and Dubai. At the same time, geopolitical and trade tensions are creating uncertainty for the sector.

Van Wiele points to the recent turmoil around United States import tariffs as an example. For a short period, diamonds cut in Europe, in practice mainly in Antwerp,  could enter the United States without tariffs, which gave Antwerp an advantage over Indian-cut stones that faced tariffs of up to 50%. 

That advantage disappeared after the US Supreme Court struck down tariff measures introduced by President Donald Trump (R). Temporary tariffs of 10% now apply to imports from both Antwerp and India.

Uncertainty from geopolitics and changing markets

Van Wiele also warns that geopolitical tensions could affect the sector’s fragile recovery. Ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran may have broader economic consequences. According to him, the longer such instability lasts, the greater the economic uncertainty,  and the less likely consumers are to spend money on luxury goods such as diamond jewellery.

A smaller but specialised future

Van Wiele concludes that Antwerp’s decision to focus firmly on natural diamonds is a calculated risk. The stones traded in Antwerp must remain distinctive and exceptional in a global luxury niche.

In his view, there is nothing wrong with becoming smaller as an industry, provided Antwerp remains strong enough to hold its position in that specialised market segment. This requires clear strategic choices and continued emphasis on ethical sourcing, including the message that Antwerp diamonds are free from conflict.

At the same time, he argues that the sector must recognise a fundamental reality: because of structural changes in the global market, Antwerp’s diamond industry will probably never again reach the scale it once had.

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