European airlines and the European Commission are preparing for a potential jet fuel shortage that could ground flights across the continent. The crisis, already causing fuel restrictions in Italy, is raising alarms across Europe, with warnings that a systemic shortage could become a reality if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Earlier in April, Italy experienced a preview of what a jet fuel crisis might look like. Fuel supplier BP imposed restrictions at four airports – Milan Linate, Treviso, Bologna, and Venice – limiting refuelling for flights under three hours. In Venice and Bologna, the cap was set at 2,000 litres per aircraft. While Italian authorities linked the issue to Easter travel demand, the underlying concern is the broader geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf, which is now escalating.
European airports raise the alarm
The Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe) recently sent an urgent letter to the European Commission, warning that a systemic shortage of jet fuel will become a reality if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another three weeks. The letter called for immediate European action, including relaxing import rules to secure alternative supply routes, organising group fuel purchases at the EU level, mandating refineries to prioritise jet fuel production, and mapping fuel reserves and supply chains to assess vulnerabilities.
Agata Lyznik, a spokesperson for ACI Europe, emphasised that Europe is poorly prepared for potential shortages and called for transparency on fuel stock levels and their locations. Airlines for Europe, representing major carriers, has also urged the Commission to take action.
European Commission acknowledges risks
The European Commission confirmed it is closely monitoring the situation. About 30% of jet fuel used in Europe is imported, raising concerns about supply disruptions. Weekly coordination meetings are being held, and the Commission is expected to unveil a package of energy measures next week. While the spokesperson declined to confirm whether jet fuel supply would be included, they stressed that currently, there are no shortages.
However, the situation is rapidly evolving. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, told CNBC that the crisis could become systemic within three to four weeks, leading to severe cuts of flights in Europe already starting in May and June.
Airlines prepare for groundings and reduced capacity
Airlines are growing increasingly nervous. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr warned that fuel supply will remain tight throughout the year, and grounding aircraft may become unavoidable. The airline has already drafted contingency plans to reduce flights, prioritising the grounding of less fuel-efficient planes.
Virgin Atlantic CEO Corneel Koster expressed similar concerns, stating that fuel supplies are only guaranteed until the end of May and that after that, the situation becomes uncertain.
Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the start of the conflict, and while many European airlines have partially hedged against price spikes through fixed-price contracts, these do not guarantee physical availability. If suppliers cannot secure fuel, airlines remain exposed.
Other carriers are already taking action:
- Ryanair is preparing to cancel flights and reduce summer capacity.
- Wizz Air expects a 50 million euro hit to its 2026 net profit.
- Scandinavian Airlines System (SAS) has cancelled 1,000 flights in April.
- Aurigny in Guernsey reduced flight capacity and introduced a temporary 2-pound ticket surcharge.
Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, warned that ticket prices will rise further if the crisis persists.
Europe’s vulnerability exposed
Brussels Airport currently reports normal fuel supply levels, with no immediate impact from geopolitical tensions. The airport benefits from underground pipelines connected to the NATO-managed Central Europe Pipeline System, which links Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, and France. However, ACI Europe’s letter highlighted concerns that military flights could take priority over civilian ones in a shortage.
The broader issue is Europe’s declining refining capacity. Four refineries closed last year alone due to efficiency and sustainability concerns.
According to the Belgian federation Energia, European refining capacity has dropped by 5% over eight years, while other regions have expanded. If this trend continues, Standard & Poor’s projects capacity could nearly halve over the next 25 years; a major concern for aviation, as jet fuel is one of the few oil products with rising demand.
Geopolitical tensions add to uncertainty
The situation hinges on developments in the Gulf region. The United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initiated on Monday 13 April 2026, has cut off a critical route for global oil and jet fuel supplies. Traffic through the strait has ground to a halt, sending oil prices surging above 100 dollars per barrel.
IATA fuel expert Jooho Kim noted that Europe’s fuel supply structure is fragmented and highly sensitive to geopolitical events. The loss of Russian refining capacity due to sanctions has already exposed Europe’s vulnerability. Now, the Strait of Hormuz crisis presents a second major challenge.
What travellers should expect
For travellers, the outlook is uncertain. Flight cancellations, higher ticket prices, and reduced schedules are likely if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Industry analysts advise monitoring airline updates and preparing for potential disruptions, particularly for summer travel plans.
The European Commission’s upcoming energy measures may provide clarity, but for now, the aviation sector is bracing for a challenging few months.
Virgin Atlantic CEO Corneel Koster noted that no matter what happens in the Gulf going forward, some of this disruption to global energy prices will be here to stay.
