European airports warn of looming fuel shortages as Hormuz crisis threatens summer travel

European airports are facing a growing risk of aviation fuel shortages as tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global energy flows, with industry leaders warning that the situation could deteriorate rapidly ahead of the summer travel season.

According to the Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe), a systemic shortage of aviation fuel could materialise across the European Union within three weeks if transit through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored in a stable and sustained way. In a letter to European Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the airport body expressed growing concern about fuel availability and called for proactive monitoring and intervention at EU level. The warning comes at a critical moment, with the peak summer season approaching, a period during which air travel underpins much of Europe’s tourism economy.

Conflict-driven supply shock

The crisis stems from the ongoing conflict involving United States President Donald Trump (Rep.) and Iran, which has severely disrupted tanker traffic through the Gulf. Although a temporary ceasefire has been announced, it has done little to stabilise oil markets. Prices for jet fuel have surged, roughly doubling to around €1,500 per metric ton compared to pre-conflict levels, while logistical bottlenecks continue to constrain supply.

Industry analysts warn that May and June could prove particularly difficult. Lost volumes from the Gulf are not easily replaced, and Europe lacks sufficient alternative supply sources. In normal circumstances, the continent can rely on imports from Asia, but countries such as Vietnam and others in East Asia have already begun rationing fuel or restricting exports to protect domestic supply. China has introduced an export ban on oil products, further tightening the global market.

Airlines prepare contingency measures

Airlines are beginning to prepare for potential disruption. Ryanair has indicated that between 10 and 25% of its fuel supply could be at risk, a scenario that would likely lead to capacity cuts across European routes. Lufthansa is drawing up contingency plans that could see a temporary grounding of up to 40 aircraft, while SAS Scandinavian Airlines has already cancelled around a thousand flights due to rising fuel costs. Air France–KLM has introduced surcharges on long-haul tickets, and Finnair has also signalled price increases.

Despite these early responses, there is not yet a full-scale crisis. Most European airports report that current fuel stocks remain within normal ranges, and airlines generally indicate they have sufficient supplies for several weeks. However, suppliers are unable to guarantee deliveries beyond the short term, particularly into May, when the effects of disrupted tanker traffic are expected to be felt more acutely.

Vulnerable hubs and fragile supply chains

The United Kingdom is seen as especially vulnerable, with London Heathrow Airport highlighted as a key pressure point due to its reliance on imports from the Gulf, which account for roughly half of its jet fuel supply. The last shipments loaded before the outbreak of hostilities are now arriving, raising concerns about what will follow.

The wider aviation system is already under strain. Earlier in the conflict, flights through major Gulf hubs were severely disrupted, stranding passengers and complicating connections between Europe and Asia. Now, the focus has shifted from airspace closures to fuel availability, a more structural challenge that could have longer-lasting effects.

Limited disruption for now, but risks increasing

Experts caution that while widespread disruption has not yet occurred, the situation remains fragile. If high prices and logistical constraints persist for another one to two months, airlines are likely to reduce flight frequencies, cut less profitable routes and introduce more targeted cancellations. Passengers are already experiencing higher fares and fuel surcharges, as well as longer flight paths to avoid affected airspace, all of which add to operational costs.

European consumer protection rules may offer some safeguards. Airlines cancelling flights at short notice remain liable for compensation of between €250 and €600, in addition to refunds. However, if cancellations are made more than two weeks before departure, compensation is not required, leaving travellers with less protection as airlines adjust schedules in advance.

A critical few weeks ahead

The key risk now lies in the transition from high prices and logistical stress to actual physical shortages. If airports begin to run low on fuel, disruptions could escalate quickly across the network. Even in the event of a rapid de-escalation of the conflict, the time required to restore normal shipping flows – potentially six weeks or more – means that Europe’s aviation sector could face a prolonged period of uncertainty at the height of the summer travel season.