TUI Fly is considering reducing the number of aircraft it bases in Belgium, becoming the second major airline group in recent weeks to question its future capacity in the country following the federal government’s decision to increase the aviation tax from 2027.
The German travel group has not announced any concrete cuts, but chief executive Sebastian Ebel said Belgium’s tax environment had become less attractive and indicated that the company could reduce the size of its Belgian fleet. His comments come just weeks after Ryanair confirmed it would remove five aircraft from its Charleroi base and cut around two million seats from its Belgian operations for the winter 2026/27 and summer 2027 schedules, blaming the higher passenger tax.
Tax increase at the centre of the debate
From 1 January 2027, Belgium’s Tax on Boarding an Aircraft (TILEA) will rise from €5 to €7 for most medium- and long-haul departures. Flights of less than 500 kilometres will continue to face the higher €10 levy, reflecting the government’s aim of encouraging travellers to choose lower-emission alternatives on short journeys.
The increase is, however, smaller than originally proposed. Earlier this summer, the federal government had planned to double the standard tax to €10 before scaling the increase back to €7 following weeks of lobbying by airlines and airport operators. The aviation industry warned that a sharp increase would undermine Belgium’s competitiveness, prompting ministers to settle on a compromise.
TUI joins Ryanair in raising concerns
TUI currently bases around 20 aircraft in Belgium and employs approximately 2,100 people. Ebel said the company was reviewing whether it should continue stationing the same number of aircraft in the country, arguing that Belgium’s tax climate had become less favourable. He suggested the Belgian government would have to decide whether it still wanted to guarantee affordable holidays for travellers with lower incomes.
The comments follow a gradual reduction of TUI’s Belgian operations over the past two years. The company ended its long-haul flights from Belgium last year, transferred those services to Amsterdam Schiphol, ceased operations from Liège Airport earlier this year and is due to close its Antwerp International Airport base next spring.
Unlike Ryanair, however, TUI later stressed that no decision has been taken to reduce its Belgian fleet and that Ebel’s remarks were made in the broader context of the group’s quarterly financial results rather than as an announcement of imminent restructuring.
Ryanair has been warning for months
Ryanair’s latest decision marks the culmination of a campaign that began earlier this year.
Already in January, the Irish low-cost carrier warned it would reduce capacity at Charleroi because of rising passenger taxes, saying it intended to redeploy aircraft to countries where operating costs were lower. Reuters reported at the time that Ryanair planned to cut around 10% of its Charleroi capacity and repeatedly warned that further tax increases would trigger additional reductions.
When the Belgian government confirmed the new €7 tax in July, Ryanair followed through on those warnings, announcing the withdrawal of five aircraft from Charleroi and approximately two million fewer seats across its Charleroi and Brussels Airport schedules from winter 2026 onwards. The airline argued that Belgium was becoming less competitive while countries including Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, parts of Italy, and Albania were reducing or abolishing aviation taxes to attract airlines and tourism.
Ryanair estimates that the move could affect between 150 and 200 Belgian jobs, although some flight and cabin crew may be transferred to other bases.
Airlines point to competition across borders
Belgian airports have long argued that the country’s location makes it especially vulnerable to aviation taxes. With major airports in the Netherlands, northern France and western Germany all within easy reach by road, passengers can often choose to depart from neighbouring countries if ticket prices rise.
That argument was central during negotiations over the new tax. Airport operators warned that higher charges would encourage both airlines and travellers to shift capacity abroad, while the government argued that the reduced €7 rate would still allow Belgium to raise revenue without causing major damage to connectivity.
Low-cost airlines are particularly sensitive to even modest increases because taxes represent a much larger proportion of a €20 or €30 ticket than of a traditional full-service fare.
Economists question the airlines’ argument
Not everyone accepts that the tax is the primary reason for the restructuring.
University of Antwerp aviation economist Wouter Dewulf argues that Belgium’s aviation tax remains relatively modest compared with neighbouring countries. The Netherlands already charges significantly higher passenger taxes and plans further increases, while the United Kingdom also levies substantially higher Air Passenger Duty depending on destination and travel class. In that context, Dewulf believes it is difficult to attribute TUI’s restructuring plans solely to Belgium’s tax policy.
He also notes that TUI has shifted flights to Amsterdam Schiphol, where passenger taxes are considerably higher than in Belgium, suggesting broader commercial factors are driving the company’s decisions.
According to Dewulf, airlines across Europe are currently trimming less profitable routes because of higher fuel costs, geopolitical tensions and increasing environmental compliance costs. TUI has also been trying to improve the profitability of its Belgian business after several years of losses, making further consolidation likely regardless of the tax debate.
Belgium remains an important aviation market
Despite the criticism from Ryanair and TUI, Belgium continues to attract investment from other airlines.
Dutch low-cost carrier Transavia opened a base at Brussels Airport this summer, while Corendon has expanded its Belgian operations in recent years. Ryanair itself continues to describe Charleroi as one of its most profitable bases despite reducing capacity there.
Industry analysts also point out that Wallonia has spent more than two decades developing a strong aviation sector centred on Charleroi and Liège. Charleroi has become one of Europe’s largest low-cost airports, while Liège has grown into one of the continent’s leading cargo hubs.
For that reason, many observers expect the current dispute to remain focused on future growth rather than prompting a wholesale withdrawal from Belgium.
The debate nevertheless highlights the balancing act facing the Belgian government: raising tax revenue and encouraging more sustainable transport while maintaining the country’s competitiveness in an aviation market where airlines can relatively quickly redeploy aircraft to other European bases.
